Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
