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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still